Major combat operations unfolding in the Middle East. Today is day 832 of the Red Sea crisis and we should now expect this count to continue for quite a while
Major combat operations unfolding in the Middle East. Today is day 832 of the Red Sea crisis and we should now expect this count to continue for quite a while. Signs of normalization over the past 2 months are swiftly replaced by an expectation that the count could exceed 1000 days unless we see a swift collapse of the Iranian regime.
Presently there are no reports that any commercial vessels in the region have been attacked by either Iran or the Houthies.
Immediately prior to the outbreak of war, Maersk issued an advisory that some of the planned transits on MECL and ME11 services would no longer go via the Red Sea but instead again go around Africa.Note ME11 is a Gemini service together with Hapag-Lloyd who calls it the IMX. Hapag-Lloyd advised similarly.
Presently the 3 CMA CGM services using the Red Sea-Suez transit MEDEX, BEX2 and INDAMEX show no sign of schedule changes and the vessels also do not exhibit a change of course.
Times of Israel cite 2 sources in the Houthies that attacks on vessels will resume possibly as soon as tonight. There is no official word from the Houthies.
Presently the opening round of hostilities is playing out and we do not know where this will go. Situation presently (early morning USWC where I am right now for the hashtag
#TPM26 conference) is that US and Israel have launched attacks on Iran. Iran have launched missile attacks on US bases in UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia as well as attacks on Israel.
UKMTO warns mariners in Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea and Strait of Hormuz of significant military activity and to be prepared for disruptions to AIS, navigational and communication systems.
No carriers have made advisories as to transits through the Strait of Hormuz as of yet. Bloomberg is, however, reporting that some oil tankers have already now begun avoiding a transit.
Depending on the duration and scale of the hostilities this could result in a risk assessment whereby some carriers decide not to send all the planned large container vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Should that be the case, this would increase transhipment cargo and we could see congestion problems in key regional hubs such as Salalah, Colombo, Tanjung Pelepas and Singapore. Potentially also overflow into Fujairah in UAE as well as Sohar and Duqm in Oman.
Presently 4 container vessels with active AIS are exiting the Strait of Hormuz and 3 heading into it. AIS data appear to be compromised as a 13000 TEU vessel is showing as being on land in UAE. Screenshot from vesselfinder.
Please note my focus here is on the impact on container shipping, not the political stance in terms of whether or not this is a desirable development in relation to the Iranian regime specifically and the stability of the region in general.
EDIT AFTER POSTING: Please also see my newer post as all container vessels poised for Strait of Hormuz transit have now made U-turns. Iran declared the Strait for closed
